Conferência no Instituto Geofísico de Lisboa

Instituto Geofísico do Infante D. Luís

Conferência

22 de Abril de 2010 - Sala 6.2.53 - 11.00 -12.00 horas


The Challenge of Climate Change - Professor Sir Brian Hoskins*

Climate varies on all time-scales and this natural variability provides a challenge to the detection of any possible change due to human activity and to the prediction of future changes. 19th century science provides the basis for confidence that such changes can be expected and many independent sources of data support that they are occurring. Complex climate models run on supercomputers aid in this attribution and give projections for future climate based on specified scenarios of human activity. However most impacts of climate change will depend on extreme regional weather changes and events for which the current predictive power is poor though much progress is achievable.

Probability predictions for future climate change have provided the basis for global emission mitigation scenarios that have been used to produce UK targets that have now been enshrined in its law. The changes in human activity and the development and applications of the technology required to meet such targets are possible but very challenging.

*Professor Sir Brian Hoskins is a Royal Society Research Professor and member of the new Committee on Climate Change. He shares his time between the Grantham Institute for Climate Change at Imperial College and Reading University, where he is Professor of Meteorology and was a head of department for six years. Sir Brian is recognised as one of the world's leading weather and climate scientists.